College football best bets: LSU vs. Florida State; Ohio State vs. Indiana -

We’re back for another year of college football picks. Last year, the picks in this column went 32-27-1, a 53.3 percent winning percentage that eked into profitability when accounting for the juice sportsbooks charge for bets. We’ll try to do even better this year.

This column will give out four picks per week: the game of the week, a favorite, an underdog and a wild card, which can be anything (another favorite or underdog in a game that might be flying under the radar, or a total, for instance). Hopefully we’ll all be in good shape by the time the clock hits zero at the national championship game in Houston on Jan. 8.

All spreads were taken Wednesday from DraftKings Sportsbook. All times Eastern.

The game of the week

No. 5 LSU vs. No. 8 Florida State in Orlando, over 56.5 points

Sunday, 7:30 p.m., ABC

Labor Day weekend used to be stacked with quality nonconference matchups, but thanks to the vagaries of a changing sport we now barely get any, with this neutral-site game between the Tigers and Seminoles the weekend’s only game featuring two ranked teams. Both programs have taken similar paths back to respectability: Expect around 40 transfers to play key roles Sunday night between the two.

There are a few reasons this could be something of a shootout, starting with the quarterbacks. LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Florida State’s Jordan Travis are both among the favorites on the Heisman Trophy odds board. Daniels set the Tigers record for a quarterback and led all Football Bowl Subdivision quarterbacks with 885 rushing yards last season while also adding 17 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. Florida State was susceptible to the run, ranking just 63rd in success rate allowed, and now must also contend with LSU running back Logan Diggs, who transferred from Notre Dame after a 2022 season that featured three games with more than 120 rushing yards and four in which he averaged at least 6.3 yards per carry.

Travis averaged eight yards per non-sack carry and 9.7 yards when scrambling, and LSU gave up 64 scrimmage plays that gained at least 20 yards in 2022, ranking 97th nationally in that department. The Seminoles add wide receiver Keon Coleman, who averaged 13.8 yards per reception for Michigan State last season.

There’s going to be a lot of seasoned talent on the field for this game, and hopefully a lot of points.

The favorite

No. 11 Texas (-35) vs. Rice

Saturday, 3:30 p.m., Fox

Save for running back Bijan Robinson, the 2022 Doak Walker Award winner who is now toiling for the Atlanta Falcons, Texas returns a whole lot of effective players this season, including leading passer Quinn Ewers, its three leading receivers and nearly all of its offensive line, defensive line and secondary. That’s a tough ask for Rice, which did little to address a defense that allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 7.9 yards per attempt (tied for 106th in the FBS) and compile a 150 rating (118th in the nation).

The Owls did bring in well-traveled quarterback JT Daniels, who is on his fourth NCAA team after previous stops at USC, Georgia and West Virginia. This will actually be his third career start against Texas in Austin, having previously taken the field in losses for the Trojans and Mountaineers. But that won’t be enough. These two teams met most recently in 2021, and the Longhorns won, 58-0. Expect more of the same.

The underdog

Wyoming (+14) vs. Texas Tech

Saturday, 7:30 p.m., CBS

I’ve already expressed my concerns with the Red Raiders, who inexplicably have become something of a trendy pick this season. In short: Texas Tech was an 8-5 team with a 6-7 body of work in 2022, abetted by fumble luck and four wins of four points or fewer. Would the Red Raiders be a two-touchdown road favorite Saturday if they had a sub-. 500 record last season, as their statistics suggest they should have? Probably not.

Wyoming also wasn’t exceptional in 2022. Even though the Cowboys went 7-6 and played in a bowl game, it was their worst season since 2015 in terms of SP+, a measure of overall efficiency. But Wyoming’s defense was pretty good, as usual, and should be better this season because nearly everyone involved with it is back.

Texas Tech’s offense led the nation in plays per game last season, while the Cowboys ranked 129th out of 131 FBS teams in that category because of their reliance on a clock-killing ground game: Wyoming was 13th in running-play percentage and 18th in rushing success rate. Two of the players at the forefront of that attack — running backs Dawaiian McNeely and D.Q. James, who combined to average 6.8 yards per carry — are back and will be joined by Northern Illinois transfer Harrison Waylee (899 rushing yards in 2022). The Red Raiders struggled far more against the run than the pass and now will have to make do without five of the eight defensive players who had at least 4.5 tackles for a loss last season. I think the Pokes can do enough to keep Texas Tech’s offense off the field and keep this one close.

The wild card

No. 3 Ohio State vs. Indiana

Ohio State team total over 44.5 points

Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS

The Buckeyes lost quarterback C.J. Stroud to the NFL. Here’s who they return from an offense that averaged 44.2 points per game last season: nearly everyone else of note when it comes to the skill positions. Running backs TreVeyon Henderson, Dallan Hayden and Miyan Williams, who combined to rush for 1,949 yards and 25 touchdowns, are back, as are wide receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, who had 2,414 combined receiving yards and 24 touchdown catches.

Indiana’s defense ranked 109th last season in terms of SP+ and now must replace 13 of 16 players who logged at least 300 snaps for that unit. Combine that with an offense that either usually scores or punts in a hurry — Indiana ran a play every 20.17 seconds last season, the fastest tempo in the nation, but also punted the ball 77 times, tied for seventh — and the Hoosiers might struggle to keep their defense off the field.

A replay of Ohio State’s 56-14 win over Indiana on Nov. 12 could be on the agenda here.

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